Chris Lennard

Research Staff

Although now a climatologist, I am a lapsed zoologist who has also dabbled in the dark art of oceanography. As such I hold an undergraduate degree in Zoology and post graduate degrees in Ocean and Atmospheric Science (B.Sc. Hons), Zoology (M.Sc.) and Climatology (Ph.D.). As a zoologist I was interested in the historic causes of historic avian extinction (introduced predators) and how these have changed over time with respect to the current most threatened species (habitat loss). My Ph.D. tested the ability of a regional climate model (MM5) to capture extreme rainfall events over Cape Town, South Africa. I have also lectured into a number of climate related courses at UCT and the CSAG Winterschool. Currently my responsibilities include: 1. Development of a wind atlas for South Africa (WASA ) using both statistical and dynamical methods for the assessment of renewable energy resources in South Africa. 2. Through the Co-Ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX ) I lead the CORDEX-Africa Analysis Initiative and the development of an Impacts Atlas for Africa that will provide information on the regional climate expression of climate change under 1.5, 2 and 4 degrees of global warning as well as impacts of these changes on various sectors of society. One of my current Cordex responsibilities includes the engagement of users of climate information which I find particularly satisfying. 3. I am a lead author in Chapter 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Land and Climate and in AR6, WG2 Chapter 9 - Africa. 4. I am a member of the climate science work package in the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands (FRACTAL) project. Within FRACTAL I am involved in several sub-projects:

a. Quantifying the uncertainty in observed rainfall across Africa and development of a probabilistic observed rainfall dataset.

b. An assessment of the co-behaviour of remote and regional drivers of southern African rainfall.

5. The development of seasonal agricultural forecasts over southern Africa through testing the sensitivity of the agricultural models to the climate forecast to minimize uncertainties and errors in the crop modelling. 6. The development of seasonal hydrological forecasts over southern Africa from a suite of climate forecasts (included statistically and dynamically downscaled forecasts), hydrological models and land surface models including a quantification of uncertainty in the forecasting system and the development of user-friendly metrics. But I'd rather be running on a mountain or cycling or skiing. "Everywhere you go you always take the weather with you"......Crowded House

Personal Site

Publications

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Shakirudeen Lawal, Christopher Lennard, Bruce Hewitson, (2019) Response of southern African vegetation to climate change at 1.5 and 2.0° global warming above the pre-industrial level Climate Services doi:10.1016/j.cliser.2019.100134
Temitope S. Egbebiyi, Chris Lennard, Olivier Crespo, Phillip Mukwenha, Shakirudeen Lawal, Kwesi Quagraine, (2019) Assessing Future Spatio-Temporal Changes in Crop Suitability and Planting Season over West Africa: Using the Concept of Crop-Climate Departure Climate doi:10.3390/cli7090102
(2019) Defining Crop–climate Departure in West Africa: Improved Understanding of the Timing of Future Changes in Crop Suitability Climate doi:10.3390/cli7090101
(2019) What can we know about future precipitation in Africa? Robustness, significance and added value of projections from a large ensemble of regional climate models Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04900-3
(2019) Future changes in rainfall associated with ENSO, IOD and changes in the mean state over Eastern Africa Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4239-7
(2019) The observed and model-simulated response of southern African vegetation to drought Agricultural and Forest Meteorology doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107698
(2019) Numerical simulation of surface solar radiation over Southern Africa. Part 2: projections of regional and global climate models doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04817-x
(2019) A metrics‐based analysis of seasonal daily precipitation and near‐surface temperature within seven Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment domains doi:10.1002/asl.897
(2019) Process-oriented assessment of RCA4 regional climate model projections over the Congo Basin under 1.5 C and 2 C global warming levels: influence of regional moisture fluxes doi:10.1007/s00382-019-04751-y
Kwesi A. Quagraine, Bruce Hewitson, Christopher Jack, Izidine Pinto, Christopher Lennard, (2019) A methodological approach to assess the co-behaviour of climate processes over southern Africa Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/jcli-d-18-0689.1
Christopher Lennard, (2018) Multi-Scale Drivers of the South African Weather and Climate World Regional Geography Book Series doi:10.1007/978-3-319-94974-1_9
Kisembe, J., Favre, A., Dosio, A., Lennard, C., Sabiiti, G., Nimusiima, A., (2018) Evaluation of rainfall simulations over Uganda in CORDEX regional climate models Theoretical and Applied Climatology doi:10.1007/s00704-018-2643-x
Nana Ama Browne Klutse, Vincent Ajayi, Emiola Olabode Gbobaniyi, Temitope Samuel Egbebiyi, Kouakou Kouadio, Francis Nkrumah, Kwesi Akumenyi Quagraine, Christiana Olusegun, Ulrich Jacques Diasso, Babatunde J Abiodun, Kamoru Abiodun Abiodun Lawal, Grigory Nikulin, Christopher Lennard, Alessandro Dosio, (2018) Potential impact of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming on consecutive dry and wet days over West Africa Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab37b
Wilfried Pokam Mba, Georges-Noel Longandjo, Wilfran Moufouma-Okia, Jean Pierre Bell, Rachel James, Derbetini Appolinaire Derbetini Vondou, Andreas Haensler, Thierry Christian Fotso Nguemo, Guy Merlin Guenang, Angennes Lucie Djiotang Tchotchou, Pierre Honore Kamsu-Tamo, Roland Ridick Takong, Grigory Nikulin, Christopher Lennard, Alessandro Dosio, (2018) Consequences of 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab048
Sarah Emerald Osima, Victor Indasi, Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug, Hussen Edris, Masilin Gudoshava, Herbert Misiani, Alex Nimusiima, Richard Anyah, George Otieno, Bob Ogwang, Suman Jain, Alfred Kondowe, Emmah Mwangi, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, Alessandro Dosio, (2018) Projected climate over the Greater Horn of Africa under 1.5 °С and 2°С global warming Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaba1b
C J Lennard, G Nikulin, A Dosio, W Moufouma-Okia, (2018) On the need for regional climate information over Africa under varying levels of global warming Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab2b4
Grigory Nikulin, Chris Lennard, Alessandro Dosio, Erik Kjellström, Youmin Chen, Andreas Hänsler, Marco Kupiainen, René Laprise, Laura Mariotti, Cathrine Fox Maule, Erik van Meijgaard, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, John F Scinocca, Samuel Somot, (2018) The effects of 1.5 and 2 degrees of global warming on Africa in the CORDEX ensemble Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab1b1
G Maúre, I Pinto, M Ndebele-Murisa, M Muthige, C Lennard, G Nikulin, A Dosio, A Meque, (2018) The southern African climate under 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming as simulated by CORDEX regional climate models Environmental Research Letters doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab190
Wolski, P., Jack, C., Tadross, M., van Aardenne, L., Lennard, C., (2018) Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3621-1
Nchaba, T., Mpholo, M., Lennard, C., (2017) Long-term austral summer wind speed trends over southern Africa International Journal of Climatology doi:10.1002/joc.4883
Blamey, R.C., Middleton, C., Lennard, C., Reason, C.J.C., (2017) A climatology of potential severe convective environments across South Africa Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3434-7
Wolski, P., Lennard, C., Jack, C., Tadross, M., (2017) Seasonal hydrological forecasting - Current state of play Water Wheel doi:2-s2.0-85028950951
William J. Gutowski Jr., Filippo Giorgi, Bertrand Timbal, Anne Frigon, Daniela Jacob, Hyun-Suk Kang, R. Krishnan, Boram Lee, Christopher Lennard, Grigory Nikulin, Eleanor O’Rourke, Michel Rixen, Silvina Solman, Tannecia Stephenson, Fredolin Tangang, (2016) WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): A diagnostic MIP for CMIP6 doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-120
Abiodun, B.J., Abba Omar, S., Lennard, C., Jack, C., (2016) Using regional climate models to simulate extreme rainfall events in the Western Cape, South Africa International Journal of Climatology doi:10.1002/joc.4376
Favre, A., Philippon, N., Pohl, B., Kalognomou, E.-A., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., Nikulin, G., Dosio, A., Panitz, H.-J., Cerezo-Mota, R., (2016) Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2677-z
Pinto, I., Lennard, C., Tadross, M., Hewitson, B., Dosio, A., Nikulin, G., Panitz, H.-J., Shongwe, M.E., (2016) Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models Climatic Change doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1573-1
Klutse, N.A.B., Sylla, M.B., Diallo, I., Sarr, A., Dosio, A., Diedhiou, A., Kamga, A., Lamptey, B., Ali, A., Gbobaniyi, E.O., Owusu, K., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., Nikulin, G., Panitz, H.-J., Büchner, M., (2016) Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations Theoretical and Applied Climatology doi:10.1007/s00704-014-1352-3
Endris, H.S., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., Dosio, A., Nikulin, G., Panitz, H.-J., (2016) Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX RCMs over Eastern Africa Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2734-7
Gutowski, J.W., Giorgi, F., Timbal, B., Frigon, A., Jacob, D., Kang, H.-S., Raghavan, K., Lee, B., Lennard, C., Nikulin, G., O'Rourke, E., Rixen, M., Solman, S., Stephenson, T., Tangang, F., (2016) WCRP COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): A diagnostic MIP for CMIP6 Geoscientific Model Development doi:10.5194/gmd-9-4087-2016
Steynor, A., Padgham, J., Jack, C., Hewitson, B., Lennard, C., (2016) Co-exploratory climate risk workshops: Experiences from urban Africa Climate Risk Management doi:10.1016/j.crm.2016.03.001
Lennard, C., Hahmann, A.N., Badger, J., Mortensen, N.G., Argent, B., (2015) Development of a Numerical Wind Atlas for South Africa Energy Procedia doi:10.1016/j.egypro.2015.07.873
Niang, I., Ruppel, O.C., Abdrabo, M.A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., Urquhart, P., (2015) Africa Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Part B: Regional Aspects: Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415386.002
(2015) Predictability and attribution of the South African seasonal climate doi:
(2015) Daily characteristics of West African summer monsoon precipitation in CORDEX simulations. Theoretical and Applied Climatology doi:
(2015) Using regional climate models to simulate extreme rainfall events in the Western Cape, South Africa. Int. J. Climatol., doi:
(2015) Spatial distribution of precipitation annual cycles over South Africa in 10 CORDEX regional climate model present-day simulations. Climate Dynamics doi:
(2015) Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX RCMs over Eastern Africa. Climate Dynamics doi:
(2015) Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation over southern Africa from two CORDEX models. Climatic Change doi:
Kim, J., Waliser, D.E., Mattmann, C.A., Goodale, C.E., Hart, A.F., Zimdars, P.A., Crichton, D.J., Jones, C., Nikulin, G., Hewitson, B., Jack, C., Lennard, C., Favre, A., (2014) Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: Systematic model errors Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1751-7
Lennard, C., Hegerl, G., (2014) Relating changes in synoptic circulation to the surface rainfall response using self-organising maps Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2169-6
Lennard, C., (2014) Simulating an Extreme Wind Event in a Topographically Complex Region Boundary-Layer Meteorology doi:10.1007/s10546-014-9939-x
(2014) Mesoscale modeling for the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) project. doi:
(2014) An Evaluation of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating Precipitation over Southern Africa. Atmospheric Research Letters doi:
(2014) Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR5 Chapter 22 doi:
(2014) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00703.1
Endris, H.S., Omondi, P., Jain, S., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., Chang'a, L., Awange, J.L., Dosio, A., Ketiem, P., Nikulin, G., Panitz, H.-J., Büchner, M., Stordal, F., Tazalika, L., (2013) Assessment of the performance of CORDEX regional climate models in simulating East African rainfall Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1
Favre, A., Hewitson, B., Lennard, C., Cerezo-Mota, R., Tadross, M., (2013) Cut-off Lows in the South Africa region and their contribution to precipitation Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1579-6
Ratnam, J.V., Behera, S.K., Ratna, S.B., De Rautenbach, C.J.W., Lennard, C., Luo, J.-J., Masumoto, Y., Takahashi, K., Yamagata, T., (2013) Dynamical Downscaling of Austral Summer Climate Forecasts over Southern Africa Using a Regional Coupled Model Journal of Climate doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00645.1
(2013) Extreme events: Past and future changes in the attributes of extreme rainfall and the dynamics of their driving processes doi:
(2013) CORDEX-Africa: Analyzing CORDEX data for integration into the impacts community. Climate Change Perspectives from the Atlantic doi:
(2013) Evaluation of the surface climatology in the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast experiment using the JPL-UCLA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) doi:
(2013) Changes in the drivers of extreme rainfall over South Africa doi:
(2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa doi:10.1002/joc.3834
Favre, A., Hewitson, B., Tadross, M., Lennard, C., Cerezo-Mota, R., (2012) Relationships between cut-off lows and the semiannual and southern oscillations Climate Dynamics doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1030-4
Argent, B., Hahmann, A., Lennard, C., Hewitson, B., (2012) Towards an uncertainty atlas for wind in South Africa European Wind Energy Conference and Exhibition 2012, EWEC 2012 doi:2-s2.0-84884376107
(2012) CORDEX-Africa: a unique opportunity for science and capacity building doi:
Sang, H., Gelfand, A.E., Lennard, C., Hegerl, G., Hewitson, B., (2008) Interpreting self-organizing maps through space-time data models Annals of Applied Statistics doi:10.1214/08-AOAS174
(2004) Dynamical modelling of present and future climate systems doi:
, () Modeling extreme mid-latitude cyclones over Cape Town, South Africa doi:
, () Interpolation of temperature fields using dynamic and static lapse rates doi:
, () Intercomparison of precipitation extremes over southern Africa in CORDEX simulations doi:
, () Statistical and dynamical downscaling in CORDEX-Africa: differing views on the regional climate doi:

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