Another negative impact we could all do without

As an Englishman I do enjoy a good cup of tea. In the UK I was an occasional drinker of rooibos but now that I live in South Africa it is becoming a daily ritual. In fact, I am gradually migrating away from “normal” tea (at least that’s what we English call it) towards rooibos as my tea of choice. Therefore I was alarmed to learn that climate change threatens the booming rooibos tea industry.

A recent article on the BBC website highlights the current growth and potential future plight of the rooibos industry. The article states:

Rooibos is particularly vulnerable to changes in the weather as it only grows in about 20,000km sq of the Suid Bokkeveld due to the region’s biodiversity. The herbal plant needs specific bacteria and fungi to be present in the soil as well as certain bees and wasps which are only found here.

Archer et al. (2008) examined the adaptation responses of rooibos farmers during a partcicularly dry period from 2003 to 2005. The authors noted that the Suid Bokkeveld region experienced “a 40% decrease in cultivated rooibos yield for the 2004/5 season and decreased yields for farmers as a result of a severe dry spell in July 2005.” The study concludes that the farmers have substantial experience in adapting to adverse climatic conditions but to address climate change, additional adaptation measures may need to be implemented.

I do not wish to trivialise the nature of the threat facing those who are reliant on the success of the rooibos plant. The additional pressures that climate change may place on an already drought-sensitive industry may have disastrous impacts on the livelihoods of rooibos farmers. However, my personal worry about the possible demise of rooibos (which thankfully is by no means certain) reminds me that despite my best efforts, I tend to be more interested in the negative impacts of climate change when I can see a direct, albeit minor, impact on my own way of life. I suspect I am not alone. I also only worry about the possible negative impacts of climate change rather than look forward to the positive impacts. Maybe I am too easily influenced by scare stories in the media or maybe it is because the negative impacts far outweigh any benefits. The IPCC assessments certainly seem to support the latter.

Over the coming century society will encounter both positive and negative impacts of climate change. Our perceptions of what constitute a positive or negative impact are however dictated by our vulnerabilities, interests and values. For example, the observed and projected shrinking of the Arctic sea-ice is likely to be welcomed by multi-national companies hoping to reduce the costs of shipping but feared by those living in northern latitudes who have economic and cultural attachments to the presence of sea-ice. This example illuminates an interesting social dimension to perceptions of climate change impacts. We tend to be suspicious of those who position themselves to take advantage of climate change and supporting of those who are threatened. Adaptation to climate change needn’t always be focused on reducing risk; strategies can also be developed to exploit opportunities.

Having been exposed to climate science research for a number of years, I can say with some confidence that there is a tendency to focus on the negative impacts of climate change within the research community. Conversely for those researching sustainable development, climate change is becoming increasingly framed in relation to opportunities which ought to be exploited. Job creation, energy security and technological innovation are often cited examples of the benefits of addressing climate change by shifting away from a fossil fuel economy. Should the climate change impacts research community be placing more emphasis on the possible benefits and opportunities associated with climate change impacts over the coming decades? Can we simultaneously support measures to reduce greenhouse gases whilst actively pursuing research into the benefits of climate change which may be exploited by appropriate adaptation? Unlike Bjorn Lomborg, I am not advocating a reduction in our efforts to address the projected negative consequences of climate change but I wonder if we are missing a trick by not placing more emphasis on the benefits that may accompany a warming world.