Probabilistic vs deterministic forecasts – interpreting skill statistics for the benefit of users Owing to probabilistic uncertainties associated with seasonal forecasts, especially over areas such as southern Africa where forecast skill is limited, non-climatologists and users of such forecasts frequently prefer them to be presented or distributed in terms of the likelihood (expressed as a… Read more »
Climate change projections from a multi-model ensemble of CORDEX and CMIPs over Angola Angola has been characterized as one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Climate change compounded by existing poverty, a legacy of conflict and other risk factors, currently impede development and are expected to become worse as climate change impacts increase…. Read more »
Climate change increased extreme monsoon rainfall, flooding highly vulnerable communities in Pakistan As a direct consequence of extreme monsoon rainfall throughout the summer 2022 season Pakistan experienced the worst flooding in its history. We employ a probabilistic event attribution methodology as well as a detailed assessment of the dynamics to understand the role of climate… Read more »
Heatwaves in Mozambique (1983)–2016: Characteristics, trends and city-level summaries using high-resolution CHIRTS-daily. The intensity, frequency, and duration of heatwaves are increasing worldwide. Still, heatwaves are systematically underreported and underresearched across the African continent. This study examines heatwaves across Mozambique, a country highly vulnerable to a variety of climate risks yet where heatwaves have received little… Read more »
Role of Indigenous and local knowledge in seasonal forecasts and climate adaptation: A case study of smallholder farmers in Chiredzi, Zimbabwe. Accessible, reliable and diverse sources of climate information are needed to inform climate change adaptation at all levels of society, particularly for vulnerable sectors such as smallholder farming. Globally, many smallholder farmers use Indigenous… Read more »
Summary An initial look at preliminary March 2023 rainfall data for Table Mountain suggests it was the wettest March in the instrumental record of the “Mountain in the Sea”, going back as far as 1893! This appears to have been mostly the result of four cut-off low systems forming along the west coast during the… Read more »
The April 2021 Cape Town Wildfire: Has Anthropogenic Climate Change Altered the Likelihood of Extreme Fire Weather? CMIP6 models suggest that extreme fire weather associated with the April 2021 Cape Town wildfire has become 90% more likely in a warmer world. Paper Link: Liu, Z., Eden, J.M., Dieppois, B., Conradie, W.S. and Blackett, M., 2023…. Read more »
Fostering transdisciplinary research for equitable and sustainable development pathways across Africa: what changes are needed? The transformations required to accomplish the SDGs throughout the African continent necessitate new methods of mobilizing, weaving together, and implementing knowledge. Transdisciplinarity (TD), understood as the co-production of knowledge across disciplines and with non-academic actors, is a potential, all-encompassing method… Read more »
Attribution of the human influence on heavy rainfall associated with flooding events during 2012, 2016, and 2018 March-April-May seasons in Kenya. Kenya received severe rainfall during the March-April-May (MAM) rainfall season in 2012, 2016, and 2018, resulting in human and cattle deaths, the devastation of infrastructure and property, bursting of riverbanks, submerging of farmlands, and… Read more »